The Hat Problem on Cycles on at Least Nine Vertices

Abstract

The topic is the hat problem, in which each of \(n\) players is randomly fitted with a blue or red hat. Then, everybody can try to guess simultaneously their own hat color by looking at the hat colors of the other players. The team wins if at least one player guesses their hat color correctly, and no one guesses their hat color wrong; otherwise, the team loses. The aim is to maximize the probability of winning. In this version, every player can see everybody excluding themselves. We consider such a problem on a graph, where vertices correspond to players, and a player can see each player to whom they are connected by an edge. The solution of the hat problem on a graph is known for trees and for the cycle \(C_4\). We solve the problem on cycles with at least nine vertices.