Modeling the correlation between real exchange rate, global trade balance and population aging based on multiple regression analysis of international political economy

Abstract

This paper discusses the appreciation of the elderly to influence the actual exchange rate by using the requirements structure and the current account mechanism. Using the internal actual exchange rate formula and the Balassa-Samuelson effect, the propagation mechanism of the aging of the population was established. This paper discusses the influence of aging on trade balance, and sets up the panel model of countries of different age categories. Through heterogeneity analysis and multivariate regression test assessment. The study of mathematical methods found that the rate of pension care significantly affected the actual effective exchange rate. In countries where aging and moderate aging lead to depreciation, aging and non-ageing countries can rise.