A study of the impact of corporate market forecasting capability on the accuracy of strategic decision-making based on computational analysis of business data

Tian Luo 1, Guangmao Wei 2, Fan Zhang 2
1College of Business Administration, University of Macau, Macau, 999078, China
2School of Logistics and Finance, Guangxi Logistics Vocational and Technical College, Guigang, Guangxi, 531007, China

Abstract

This study focuses on the computational analysis of business data, constructs a market prediction framework that integrates K-means clustering, feature standardization and improved N-BEATS model, and verifies its effect on the accuracy of enterprise strategic decision-making based on multi-source data. The study selects real-time transaction data and weather data from 800 merchants under Alibaba, extracts key features through standardization and correlation analysis, and improves the model by introducing topological features and multi-attention mechanism, which significantly optimizes the time series prediction accuracy and reduces the RMSE by 18.6%. The empirical analysis for tissue paper category shows that the forecast error rate of the time series decomposition method is only 0.58%, which is better than the traditional trend method and seasonal index method. Through the regression analysis of 328 business managers’ questionnaires, data-driven analysis β=0.617, p<0.001 and innovative forecasting β=0.594, p<0.001 have a significant positive effect on strategic decisionmaking accuracy and consensus.

Keywords: market forecasting, strategic decision making, N-BEATS model, time series decomposition, data-driven