The global urbanization process is rapidly increasing, and a reasonable and scientific analysis of the relationship between urban land expansion and land resources plays an important role in the rational allocation and coordinated development of land resources. This paper constructs a spatio-temporal geographic weighted regression model coupled with geospatial and temporal coordinates, and incorporates temporal and spatial non-stationarity into the model. Then, using the method of hypothesis testing, the temporal non-stationarity and spatial non-stationarity of the spatio-temporal geographic weighted regression model are examined, and at the same time, the multiple covariance test and the variance expansion factor method are proposed to carry out further statistical inference of the model. As the degree of urban sprawl increases, the land resources weaken year by year from the center to the surrounding area.The global Moran’s I for the three periods from 2003 to 2023 are 0.6289, 0.7159, and 0.7368, respectively, which show a trend of increasing year by year. It shows that land resources are strongly influenced by urban expansion, and the spatial distribution of land resources shows spatial aggregation. Several variables, such as building volume rate, population size, regional economic development, regional cultural level, infrastructure construction and urban fallow area, have significant effects on the spatial differentiation of land resources. The above differentiation characteristics provide insights into the rationalization of urban expansion and the scientific allocation of land resources.