Evaluation of the differences in competition strength of high-level table tennis matches: a case study based on a multiple regression model

With the reforms in competition rules and equipment by the International Table Tennis Federation (ITTF), the number of rounds in table tennis matches has increased, placing higher demands on athletes’ abilities to transition between technical and tactical offensive and defensive strategies, as well as on their physical and psychological qualities. Therefore, this study employs methods such as the strength difference evaluation, competition performance (CP), and multiple regression. Using 48 international important matches in which Player W (anonymous) participated as case studies, the study evaluates and predicts the competitive performance of W when facing athletes of different world rankings. The results indicate that in matches against athletes with different skill rankings, the phases where the technical strength difference significantly affects competition performance (CP) are the attack-after-serve phase and attack-after-receive phase, followed by the rally phase, and finally, the rally phase Ⅱ. The competitive level in serve rounds is superior to that in receive rounds. The Kruskal-Wallis test results reveal significant fluctuations in the competition performance (CP) during the rally phase Ⅱ, demonstrating highly significant differences (P < 0.01). In matches, Player W has a very low probability of winning when not holding an absolute advantage in key techniques (the first four strokes) – particularly pronounced when facing athletes ranked in the world top 20. The multiple regression model for the technical strength difference in table tennis matches plays a certain role in predicting the performance of athletes in terms of technical and tactical indicators during matches, offering a clear reflection of the effectiveness of these indicators.